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Super Mario & Co Sinks The Euro

The ECB (European Central Bank) is out this morning trying to fight the market and its expectations. The Eurozone economic data, including inflation, has improved in the last several months, so the forex market has increased  its expectations for some sort of monetary tightening.

Even the ECB rhetoric has changed in the last few months. We have heard a lot of hawkish comments from various ECB members, explicitly talking about hiking the interest rates and ending the QE programme.

However we haven´t heard Draghi support these comments, so I think that there must be some sort of war going on in ECB headquarters.

As we said above, the economic figures coming from Europe have improved in the recent months, but only last week we saw a pullback on monthly inflation number, though the yearly number remained upbeat.

So, it was interesting to hear super Mario´s opinion on all this. He acknowledged the economic improvement and better inflation numbers, but he said that it´s too soon to declare victory. So, the market took this as dovish, which is what it actually is.  

His comrade Praet popped up minutes later supporting Mario and pushing his comments further by saying that the ECB will keep interest rates at these levels, or even lower, well past QE.

That´s as dovish as it gets, when the maket was actually expecting some sort of rate hike talk.  The Euro has faltered but the 1^.0630 level in EUR/USD held again.

EUR/CHF also reached 1.07 but I hesitated too long waiting for a better price lower, so I´m not in that trade yet. Still waiting to open another buy forex signal in this pair though, if the price gets to 1.07 again soon. 

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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