US Employment Numbers Up Next, But Watch Earnings For Biggest Impact

Posted Friday, April 7, 2017 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

Shortly, we will get to see the US unemployment rate and the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) for March. I don´t expect much volatility from them, unless we see a big deviation from expectations.

By the way, remember that the US ADP employment report came out much stronger than expected on Wednesday, so there´s a decent chance that we will see a big jump in NFP.  

Although expectations for the March NFP are much lower than in February, this will ampliy the element of surprise if the NFP doed manage to surprise us.

Of course, most of our attention should be on the wages or average hourly earnings as they appear on the economic calendar. They´re expected to remain at 0.2%, same as last month.

I see EUR/USD and GBP/USD are very vulnerable to a 1 point jump in wages. If the jump is bigger, then we will see the Buck take off.

I would suggest placing a sell stop below 1.0620 or even below 1.0600, but I´m afraid we might get whipsawed. We know that during important events the forex market reacts sporadically, mostly because of algorithms.

The algorithm systems usually try to take advantage of execution speed, but they lack the human intelligence to analyze the data properly. They end up opening and closing trades in milliseconds, that´s why we see spikes and whipsaws in the first few seconds/minutes after economic releases. 

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