The UK employment report will be released at 09:30 GMT, in about half an hour. Today´s employment numbers are extremely important and I expect some movement in the GBP. I hope,at least, it will make up its mind and finally break out of the recent range.
These numbers are important because the wages have been on the decline over the last couple of months, from 2.8% to 2.2% and they´re expected to move to 2.1% this time around.
Unemployment rate and claimant count change (unemployment claims) are also due soon, but unless we see a huge deviation of about 2-3 points in the unemployment numbers, I don´t expect much action from them. Therefore, we should concentrate solely on the wages.
BOE´s Mark Carney is already up and speaking to his audience, which seems a bit strange being that the employment numbers are up in half an hour. Is he trying to send us a signal?
However, GBP/USD has been stuck near the 1.25 level since last evening when it scorched our forex signal in this pair.
1.25-1.26 has been a tough resistance zone since early February, but the price still looks like it's on its way up. I´ve been waiting for a short squeeze to 1.28 or 1.30 in order to seriously short out this forex pair. Today is probably the day that we start the next leg up before the big turnaround.
Time to break out of the range?
This is only if the wages pick up again. However, they´ve been on a slide since January so it is very likely that we will see some soft numbers today. If the wage numbers are soft, then I would try to sell immediately, if I can get execute the trade in time though. That should be worth at least 200-300 pips.
The same goes for the top side, if the wage numbers impress, then I expect to see 12.26 soon and potentially even further up. So, you can double play the good numbers; buy for a 100-200 pip surge and then reverse the trade at 1.27 or 1.28 and aim 300-400 pips. Make sense?