Trade Opportunities & Economic Events 17 – 21 April Weekly Forecast
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
Welcome back, traders. Hope the Easter came with a bundle of blessings. Now let me help you understand what’s going on in the market as well was the upcoming trade opportunities. As we know, the previous week came with a lot of political and geographical uncertainties from the United States, North Korea, and Syria.
Investors are likely to continue trading based upon the hiked risk appetite which may keep the equities lower and the Bullion higher. Thereby, the U.S economic figure announcements are unlikely to place a major influence in isolation, however, there will be an impact in case of consistently weaker data.
The Week Ahead – What To Look For?
Honestly, having a look at the fundamentals side, no economic event standouts to be really important.
- Empire State Manufacturing Index (Monday – 13:30)
- Building Permits (Tuesday – 13:30)
- Housing Starts (Tuesday – 13:30)
- Capacity Utilization Rate (Tuesday – 14:15)
- Industrial Production m/m (Tuesday – 14:15)
- Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday – 15:30)
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Thursday – 13:30)
- Unemployment Claims (Thursday – 13:30)
- Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speaks (Thursday – 18:15)
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (Friday – 14:30)
- Existing Home Sales (Friday – 15:00)
- Final CPI y/y (Wednesday – 10:00)
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI (Friday – 8:00)
- French Flash Services PMI (Friday – 8:00)
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Friday – 8:30)
- German Flash Services PMI (Friday – 8:30)
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Friday – 9:00)
- Flash Services PMI (Friday – 9:00)
- BOE Gov Carney Speaks (Thursday – 16:30)
- BOE Gov Carney Speaks (Thursday – 17:30)
- Retail Sales m/m (Friday – 9:30)
- MPC Member Saunders Speaks (Friday – 12:45)
- Foreign Securities Purchases (Tuesday – 13:30)
- Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks (Tuesday – 17:45)
- Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks (Wednesday – 18:00)
- CPI m/m (Friday – 13:30)
- Common CPI y/y (Friday – 13:30)
- Median CPI y/y (Friday – 13:30)
- Trimmed CPI y/y (Friday – 13:30)
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Tuesday – 2:30)
- NAB Quarterly Business Confidence (Thursday – 2:30)
EUR/USD – Technically Supported Currency Pair
As recommended in the previous weekly forecast, the EUR/USD remained supported previous week because of weaker dollar and major bullish trend line resistance near $1.0570.
This week, the inflation figures from the of the Europe will be worth to watch. In addition to this, the investors will monitor the 1st round of the French Presidential election which are going to be held April 23rd. It's already in focus of the Europeans during the previous few weeks and tensions are hiking day by day.
EURUSD – Daily Chart
Technical Outlook – Weekly
Although, this week begins with bank holiday due to which less volatility is expected, but later on we are likely to see some major releases. Let's have a look at the technical side. The pair is consolidating at $1.0617, right above a major support level of $1.0570.
The RSI (relative strength index) is confused at 51 in the hourly chart. Whereas it's below 50 at 4- hours chart. Talking about the 50 periods EMA, it's signaling a bearish bias.
Thus, the buyers are likely to keep the EUR/USD under $1.0645 with a target of $1.0550. Whereas, the breakage below $1.0550 is likely to lead the prices towards $1.0385. But, I'm not sure about a Doji candle followed by a bearish trend in the daily time frame. It definitely poses a threat to buyers.
USD/JPY – The Safe Haven Currency Pair
The Japanese Yen is the most attractive currency these days due to the characteristics. The USD/JPY is likely to stay stronger in a current week over the uncertainties around the globe.
Investors are recommended to keep an eye on the Reuters Tankan Index for the month of April will be released on Wednesday along with the Trade Balance. During the previous week, the pair has traded exactly as we recommended in our weekly analysis report.
USDJPY – Hourly Chart
Technical Outlook – Weekly
The USD/JPY has come out of the early trading range of $110.109 – $111.750. At the moment, the pair is trading at $108.285, below 50 periods EMA. While the RSI is holding near an oversold territory of 20 which means the investors may wait before adding further selling in the market.
I will again recommend the same target level which I suggested in the previous week's analysis report. Yup, the pair is really close to its potential target level of $107.850. So it will be a good idea to reenter in the market after below $110.100, the major resistance level.
I must add that the developments in the Eurozone, the French Presidential election, and uncertainties due the United States are likely to prevail in the market. The issue of Syria and North Korea are highly in focus which may raise uncertainties in the market, causing a bearish trend in the stock markets. Consequently, increasing the demand for haven assets such as bullion.
Stay tuned for the latest updates!