The Euro has been behaving stubbornly over the last seven trading days and EUR/USD for even longer. It has been fuelled by politics on both sides, on one side is Donald Trump and his gaffes kicking the Buck down the road, on the other side are the Germans pushing the Euro higher.

So, politics are in charge and technical levels don´t matter that much nowadays. However, the ECB (European Central Bank) looms in the background. EUR/USD is approaching 1.15, which has been a line in the sand for the ECB.

The question is, are these levels as dangerous for the ECB as they have been for the past 2 years?

Now, the global and the European economies are in a much better shape and inflation is a world away from the deflation that we were facing 2 years ago, so the ECB doesn´t have to keep its monetary policy as loose as at that time.  

The consoling aspect of this uptrend though is the pace of the move higher. EUR/USD has been climbing too fast too soon, which might scare the ECB and force them to talk the Euro down. President Draghi is due to speak in Madrid tomorrow. That will be when to watch the Euro because he tends to slap it down on such occasions, although we still have some data coming in today.

The Eurozone services and manufacturing data will be released this morning and this might give Draghi the excuse he so desperately needs to be dovish. Today´s economic figures from Europe might signal the market that dovish Draghi is coming, so we better watch these numbers to get a rough idea of what´s coming tomorrow.