WTI Crude Oil Below 50% Retracement Level – Inventories Figures Ahead

Posted Thursday, June 1, 2017 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Yesterday, the WTI Crude Oil sustained a massive bearish wave in the wake of supply issues. The demand for the oil remained unchanged but supply is increasing day by day despite all the OPEC's efforts.

Recalling our earlier update, Bearish WTI Crude Oil Finds Support – Ready To Buy?, the latest updates from Libya regarding the supply hike added to concerns, along with the rising oil production by the United States.

National Oil Corporation of Libya surprised investors by reporting that their oil production is supposed to grow to 800K barrels per day (BPD).

The bear power was strong enough to ignore the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data. It's been quite surprising to see that the in the previous week, the crude oil had a draw of 8.67 million barrels. This figure is considerably higher than the anticipated draw of about 2.5 million barrels.

Today we are expecting the inventories figures from the EIA (Energy Information Administration), and considering the API report, there are stronger sentiments for significant draws on inventories.

Forex Trading Signal

Considering the technicals and fundamentals, I recommend having buy positions above $48.75, with a stop loss below $48.70 and a take profit of $49.05.

50% Retracement - Crude Oil Hourly Chart50% Retracement – Crude Oil Hourly Chart


Technical Outlook – Intraday

We remained unlucky with our forex trading signal on the WTI crude oil. Our trading signal floated in a profit of more than 15 pips, but unluckily it missed our target by 9 pips and later closed at stop loss. 

Since the Asian session, the crude oil has been consolidating below 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $47.80. Though, the level seems weaker as the crude oil has crossed above 50 – periods moving average.

On the breakage of $47.80, the pair may target $49, the 61.8% Fibonacci trading level. We can't determine the market's long-term trends before the release of EIA inventories figures today.

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