Watch US Inflation And Retail Sales For Clues About The FED
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read
The FED meeting and FOMC statement which will be released at 19:00 GMT are the elephant in the room today. Although, as I mentioned in the last forex update yesterday, the main headline, which will be a 25bps rate hike, won´t be a big factor in the forex market today. Instead, it seems, the future monetary policy path will steal the show.
So, we will be reading into the FOMC statement and will be following Yellen´s speech closely for any clues regarding the future monetary policy.
But before that, we have the US retail sales and inflation figures coming out shortly, which might effect Yellen´s speech today. The FOMC statement will already be formatted by that time so I don´t think that would change, whatever the economic numbers are today.
CPI (consumer price index) is expected to remain unchanged, while retail sales are expected to decline. That´s positive for the USD in my opinion because if there are no expectations, no disappointments, right?
By the way, the producer inflation report yesterday was pretty upbeat, so there´s a chance that the CPI today will surprise us for the better.
If that´s the case, then the USD might see some positive momentum after the release, but I doubt it will last since the elephant will be in the room until the evening.
So, today´s numbers are more important for the midterm rather than just for today, that´s why we won´t open a long term forex signal after the release. Instead, we will wait for the FOMC later in the evening.