Today is a big day for the USD. There is some very important economic data to be released, which might decide the fate of the Buck in the near-to-medium term, so we're watching those numbers closely.
What's on the calendar today?
First, the average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month. This piece of data is very important because it means cash in people's pockets, which translates to higher demand, higher sales, and eventually higher inflation.
Supposedly, inflation is what's keeping the FED from hiking interest rates faster and that is what's keeping the USD on the retreat.
Besides that, we have the unemployment rate, the non-farm employment change, and the trade balance. The unemployment rate might have some impact on the USD if the deviation is 0.2% from the actual number. However, I don't advise trading this event, since there are too many pieces of data being released at the same time, which might make the forex market a bit unpredictable.
The Buck has been on a slippery slope. The upside is more at risk in EUR/USD and GBP/USD if the numbers are negative, but I only see that as a near term option, because there isn't a lot of room to run higher in these two pairs.
If the numbers are exceptionally good, then the downside might take a little longer to convince traders, but it will surely trigger a snowball effect. After all, the Dollar has declined too much, so it's time for a decent pullback I reckon.
Trade Idea: I would consider starting to build a long term sell position if the numbers are negative, both in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
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