U.S. Unemployment Is Down-Trading Plan For S&P 500

Posted Friday, November 3, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 3 min read

It is Friday once again, and the economic calendar has given us a few key metrics to trade for the U.S. session. Canadian and American Unemployment will be on the front burner this morning, along with several other assorted production numbers.


The Hard Data

Here are today’s key metrics facing the U.S. economy:

Event                                                          Previous              Projected            Actual

Labor Force Participation Rate (Oct.)            63.1%                      NA                 62.7%

Unemployment Rate (Oct.)                            4.2%                      4.2%                4.1%

Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct.)                                  18k                      310K                 261K

The big takeaway here is the drop in unemployment, beating analyst projections. More good news for the U.S. economy should give the USD a boost. Stay tuned.


S&P 500 Technicals

As with most end-of-week sessions, I am expecting volatility early on paired with rotation late in the day. We may have a good entry setup on the E-mini S&P 500, so let’s dig into the technicals.

ES DailyDecember E-mini S&P 500 Futures, Daily Chart


This week has been an interesting one for the S&P 500. We had a three-day pennant formation on the daily timeframe and subsequent breakout to the bull. Since then, whipsaw trading has been the norm.

Here are a few technicals to be aware of:??

  • Support (1): 20 Day EMA, 2560.00
  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 2554.75
  • Support(3): Bollinger MP, 2553.50

From a practical standpoint, it is difficult to not have a bullish bias when looking at this market. Of course, finding a decent entry point to get long is a challenge. Our support levels are far beneath current pricing. At some point, they will come into play, likely next week.

Bottom line: For the rest of today’s session I am going to be looking for long entries on intraday timeframes. For now, taking a long position from the 50% retracement of Thursday’s range in the December E-mini S&P 500 contract at 2570.50 is a positive entry to the bull. Initial stop under Thursday’s low at 2562.00, producing a 1:1 R/R worth around 30 ticks.

In the event that this trade is elected, check back for management tips on how to maximize profit while limiting risk.

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