This has been a terrible year for the USD. It started in a great position but turned sour as the new year started and it looks like it will end at the worst place possible.

EUR/USD has climbed from around 1.03 to above 1.20 this year; from the look of it, this forex pair will likely close the year close to 1.20.

Last Friday the market closed at 1.1860s for EUR/USD and it has only been climbing higher these past couple of days when most of forex traders are on holiday. This shows that the market wants to be on the opposite side of the Buck even at year end.

EUR/USD has found bids out of nowhere

Commodity Dollars are reasonably higher against the USD today. USD/JPY is about 60 pips lower from last night and even GBP is going through a decent run.

You’d expect the market to be long on the USD at this time of the year, given that it has been short all year long. But, we are seeing the opposite at the moment. Is this a sign that the USD downtrend will continue next year as well? Time will tell but I do not like this sort of price action.

Maybe it’s just the thin liquidity in holiday markets. Anyway, let’s get over this period and not make too many assumptions. Let’s give it a couple of weeks next year before making decisions, I suggest.