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Jan 18 – Top Economic Events Worth Watching Today

Good morning, fellas. The markets took a rollercoaster ride on the release of an interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada. Recalling our Jan 17 – Economic Events Brief, we explored the probabilities and potential reaction of investors. As discussed, the market 1.25% rate was already “price in” and on the release of the news, we experienced dual side moves. Watch out these economic events to trade today…

Top Economic Events Today

Chinese Yuan – CNY

GDP q/y – At 10:00 (GMT), the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the gross domestic product which is forecasted to be 6.7% vs. 6.8% in the month of Oct. Fellas, the gains in Chinese GDP not only supports the Chinese currency but also gives bullish trend to the Gold and Crude Oil and vice versa.

Industrial Production y/y – It’s a change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. The figure is releasing along with Chinese GDP and due to the high importance of the GDP data, investors usually ignores the effect of industrial production unless there’s a huge divergence between expected and actual release.

Eurozone – EUR

German Buba President Weidmann is scheduled to speak at a joint conference by the International Monetary Fund and the Deutsche Bundesbank, in Frankfurt today at 8:00 (GMT). The single currency is facing high demand lately after the hawkish remarks from the ECB president Mario Draghi.

We will see another bullish shock if President Buba comments anything hawkish about the upcoming monetary policy.

U.S. Dollar – USD

Building Permits – At 13:30 (GMT), the Census Bureau will release the annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. It’s expected to be 1.29M vs. 1.30M.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Philly Fed usually comes with volatility and trading opportunities. The index is expected to drop to 24.9 from 26.2. There will be a nice buy opportunity in the Greenback if the index surprisingly gains more than 26/27.

Unemployment Claims – At 13:30 (GMT), the Jobless claims will be monitored. Economists are expected fewer claims than previous month which can underpin the Dollar. Well, considering the given forecast of all the economic events, there’s no one-sided sentiment for the Greenback. Therefore, we have to wait until the actual releases to determine the direction of trades.

Crude Oil Inventories – If you are a Crude Oil’s fan, then you must watch the stockpiles figures, expected to be released at 16:00  (GMT). We will share more insights on about this in our upcoming articles with WTI Crude Oil trade idea. Keep following us.

USD/CAD – Loonie Standstill On Rate Hike  

The Loonie reacted exactly as we forecasted yesterday. The 1.25% rate hike was widely expected and it was already “priced in”. The investors started taking profit on the monetary policy decision, giving dual side movements. For now, the $1.2375 is a key level to determine the trend. Below this, the USD/CAD can go deeper to $1.2100 zone. Whereas, Loonie is highly expected to bounce off the $1.2375 support level.

USDCAD - Daily Chart

USD/CAD – Daily Chart

Support     Resistance

1.2364    1.2531

1.2285    1.2619

1.2197    1.2698

Key Trading Level:    1.2452

USD/CAD – Trade Plan

Since the trend of USD/CAD isn’t clear yet, I would like to open a buy position above $1.2375 with a very small trade volume, having a stop below $1.2360 and take profit up at 1.2550.  

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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