Feb 21 – Economic Events Brief – FOMC Meeting Minutes Expectations

Posted Wednesday, February 21, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The US session saw some intense volatility throughout the global financial markets. It looks like investors are “pricing in” the hawkish FOMC because the Greenback is gradually rising up despite a lack of fundamental releases. The bearish trend in Gold remains unstoppable. Today, investors main focus will stay on the FOMC meeting minutes. Here’s what to expect…

Economic Events Outlook

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Labor Market Data – At 9:30 (GMT), the Office for National Statistic will be releasing the UK labor market figures. Earlier, the BOE (Bank of England) moved to a hawkish stance, remarking that rates may climb at a quicker pace than previously anticipated. Inflation has remained persistently high at 3%.

Now the ball is in the court of the labor market data. The average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 2.5% in December. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.3%, while the jobless claims are forecasted to show a small rise of 2.3K in January after a previous figure of 8.6K.

A better than expected figure will place pressure on Mark Carney to enact hawkish policy actions this year.

US Dollar – USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes – What To Expect?

The FOMC Meeting Minutes are due to be released at 19:00 (GMT). Like the Bank of England, the Fed shifted to a more hawkish stance in its January 31st meeting. Looking at the US labor market figures, everything looks as it should be. However, the Fed’s focus will remain on the inflation rate.

In these meeting minutes, we need to watch the Fed’s expectations about the upcoming rise in inflation rates. Only then will we be able to predict the Fed’s next rate hike. The market is likely to remain volatile on this event, so make sure to use stop-loss before entering the market.  

Existing Home Sales – Before the FOMC meeting minutes, the existing home sales data could generate market movement at 15:00 (GMT). However, the market is less likely to be impacted for long. Investors would prefer to save their shots for FOMC shocks.

EUR/USD – Double Bottom Support Ahead

The EUR/USD continues to trade bearish on Tuesday in the absence of major economic releases. Yet the pair remained highly volatile as the US markets reopened after the President’s day holiday.

Technical Outlook – Intraday

At the moment, the EUR/USD is consolidating beneath the 50-periods EMA, which signifies investors’ selling bias. The single currency has entered the oversold zone now. On the daily timeframe, it has already completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.2350. but the bearish trend continues.

EUR/USD - 120 Min Chart

EUR/USD – 120 Min Chart

The bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe is catching my attention. I’m still trading the EUR/USD with bearish sentiment until the market reaches above $1.2295, the double bottom level. We can expect a bounce above this level.  

EUR/USD – Key Trading Levels

Support     Resistance

1.2302    1.2391

1.2267    1.2445

1.2213    1.248

Key Trading Level:    1.2356

EUR/USD – Trade Idea

Yesterday, the EUR/USD traded in line with our forecast, hitting our suggested target level. Today, I will be looking to stay bearish below $1.2350 until $1.2295. Good luck and stay tuned for our forex trading signals!

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