March 28 – Economic Events Outlook – Expectations from the US GDP
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
The Greenback finally gained some support before today’s GDP data release. The US consumer confidence slipped badly, to 127.7 vs. the forecasted 131.2. It seems that recent US economic events are coming in red, indicating that the economy may be deceiving in its positivity. Now, all eyes turn to the US GDP. Let’s see what to expect…
Economic Events – Watch List
US Dollar – USD
Final GDP q/q
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release the US gross domestic product figure at 12:30 (GMT). This is the final read of US growth for Q4 2017. The data is expected to show a modest rise from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating growth.
This is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. A figure greater than forecasted is always favorable for a currency.
Pending Home Sales m/m
At 14:00 (GMT), the National Association of Realtors will report a change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction. Pending home sales are expected to rise by 2.1% vs. -4.7% drop previously.
This data is released about a week after the Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold.
Crude Oil Inventories
The EIA is expected to report the stockpile data at 14:30 (GMT). Last week, the EIA reported a draw of -2.6M barrels in inventories which helps us capture nice trades. Today, the economists are expecting a draw of 0.5M.
As per the recent API report, the Crude inventories swelled by 5.3 million barrels last week. Typically, there’s a positive correlation between API and EIA reports. So, we can expect the same kind of report from the EIA today – huge selling expected in the Oil.
Summing Up – Until now, the markets traded randomly due to a lack of top-tier events. But today, the US dollar is likely to determine a trend, at least until next week. Let’s wait for the GDP data. Stay tuned. Good luck!