April 19 – Economic Events Outlook – UK Retail Sales in Focus!

Posted Thursday, April 19, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Welcome to another pleasant morning. Looking at the economic calendar, it’s all about speeches today. Although it was a slow start of a busy week, the volatility is on its way. It’s better to book profit on an intra-day basis rather than looking for swing trades unless the fundamentals are clear. Here’s what to expect from the market today…

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

Australian Dollar  – AUD

Labor Market Report – On Thursday, the only major event is the Australian labor market data which is already released at 01:30 (GMT). The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the Australian employment grew less than forecast in March. Moreover, the previous month’s gain is updated to a decline, implying the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) may keep interest rates on hold.

The Aussie is trading under a bearish pressure and investors will be looking for selling opportunities ahead.

Great British Pound – GBP

Retail Sales m/m – The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 8:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In Feb, the retail sales soared by 0.8% vs. the forecast of 0.4% gain.

Today, economists are expecting a -0.5% drop in retail sales. A higher number of sales indicate a higher inflation and growing economy and vice versa. So, the negative data is likely to place selling pressure on the Sterling.

U.S. Dollar – USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Fellows, talking about quantitive fundamentals, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will play from the U.S. side at 12:30 (GMT).

Beginners, it’s a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions. The figure is expected to drop to 20.8 from 22.3 in March.

Despite the fact that a figure above 0 indicates growth, we need to compare the index with 22.3 (the past data) in order to trade the divergence.

FOMC Member Quarles is due to testify on supervision and regulation before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC at 13:30 (GMT). FOMC Member Mester is expected to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the University of Pittsburgh’s Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business. Audience questions are expected at 22:45 (GMT).

In Summary – Fellows, it’s always hard to trade qualitative indicators (speeches) but don’t miss the quantitive ones. Especially the retail sales from the UK and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Good luck for today!

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