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April 20 – Economic Events Outlook – A Fine Day to Trade Loonie

Happy Friday, traders.

Who’s up for trading the Canadian dollar today? Today’s economic calendar is loaded with Canadian economic data. The commodity currency is already in demand due to a massive rise in the prices of Crude Oil.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

Canadian Dollar – CAD

CPI m/m  

Canadian inflation has been improving lately, putting pressure on the BOC (Bank of Canada) to hike interest rates. In March, the CPI figure came out at 0.6% as opposed to a 0.4% forecast. Today, economists are expecting a slight drop in inflation growth, from 0.6% to 0.4% this month.  

Core Retail Sales m/m

This figure shows a change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles. A higher number of retail sales signals a growth in an economy. The Statistics Canada is due to release the figure at 12:30 (GMT) with a forecast of 0.4% vs. 0.9% beforehand.

Since both of the high impact events are forecasted to be negative (worse than expected), the Loonie is likely to remain under pressure. Investors are likely to stay bearish on the Loonie in order to price in the negative dataset.

USD/CAD – EMA Crossover

During the Asian session, the Loonie continued to trade bullish above the strong support level of 1.2550. The pair just had a 50-periods EMA bullish crossover on the 4-hour chart. The crossover signals buyers’ strong buying intentions. However, the immediate resistance can be found near 1.2700 and 1.2775. Additionally, the RSI and Stochastics are massively overbought above 80, signaling the potential for a bearish reversal.  

USD/CAD - 240 - Mins Chart

USD/CAD – 240 – Mins Chart

USD/CAD – Key Trading Levels

Support     Resistance

1.2609    1.2677

1.2587    1.2699

1.2553    1.2733

Key Trading Level:    1.2643

USD/CAD – Trading Plan

Before the news, I will be looking to stay bullish above $1.2645 with a stop below $1.2600 and a take profit at $1.2700 and $1.2765. before taking sell position. The stop needs to be near $1.29350 along with a take profit of $1.2810 and $1.2775.

Good luck and have an awesome weekend!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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