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May 15 – Economic Events Outlook – Eurozone, U.K. & The U.S. Events On Radar

The economic calendar is full of top-tier economic events, from Australia, China, the Eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. It’s going to be a volatile journey today, especially the New York session. Let’s plan out the day to profit the most of these events…

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

Eurozone – EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q – During the European hours at 6:00 (GMT), the investors will be monitoring the German GDP figures for the Q1 of 2018. Destatis is anticipated to exhibit a slower economic growth, with output in the Eurozone’s top economy scoring 0.4%. The GDP is down from the 0.6% increase in the preceding period.

Traders, the slower growth in the economy will put pressure on the ECB president Mario Draghi to keep the accommodative monetary policy.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment  

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung will release the data at 9:00 (GMT). The data is expected to drop to -8 from -8.2. Fellows, it’s a survey of about 300 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany. The figure used to be in the range of 15 – 20 before April. But it’s pretty clear that German’s institutional investors are losing confidence in the economy. Just another reason to expect a continuation of bearish sentiment in Euro. Do check FX Leaders Strategy on Trading the Market Sentiment for predicting moves in advance.

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y
It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation and shows a change in price for businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Simply put, when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer which leads to inflation.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics reported 2.8% average earnings in April, whereas, economists are expected a drop to 2.7% this month.

Labor Market Report 

For all the newbies, it’s one of the most closely eyed economic data as it shows a change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month. The recent job report is expected to disappoint. Jobless claims are expected to rise by 13.3K, much worse than the 11.6K in April. Certainly, the bigger number shows slacks in the labor market and it will pressure BOE to keep the rates unchanged at 0.50%.

Whereas, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

U.S. Dollar – USD

Retail Sales m/m – The Census Bureau is due to release the retail sales data at 12:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In March, the retail sales fell grew by 0.2% vs. the forecast of 0.4%.

This month, economists are expecting a 0.5% rise in retail sales and 0.4% rise in core retail sales. A higher number of sales indicate a higher inflation and growing economy. So, the positive data will be good for the greenback.

Good luck for today and trade with care!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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