U.S. Indices Barely In The Green, FOMC Minutes On Deck

Posted Thursday, July 5, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

With the July 4th holiday in the books, traders are back to work in the United States. For the first hour of trade on Wall Street, the indices have opened modestly in the green. Participation is moderate, as it appears many institutional traders have chosen to take an extended weekend.

Employment levels are the talk of the early U.S. session. A surprise downturn in ADP Employment for June has piqued trader interest. Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims for late June followed suit, each underperforming expectations.

E-Mini S&P 500 Technicals

Muted trade has been the story of the electronic session for September E-mini S&P 500 futures. Price has rejected a key 38% Fibonacci resistance level we outlined last week.

September E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart
September E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart

On the daily time frame, the September E-mini S&Ps remain in a downtrend. Price has not been sustained above the 38% retracement level at 2737.00. It appears that we may be looking at more selling in the very near future.

As we roll toward the weekly close, there are two levels on my radar:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave, 2737.00
  • Support(1): Swing Low, 2693.25

Overview: With the FOMC Minutes, U.S. NonFarm Payrolls, and Trade Balance statistics due out in the next 24 hours, we may see a directional move in the S&P 500. As of now, it appears that a test of the Swing Low is the probable scenario for Friday’s session.

Be on the lookout for increasing volatility in U.S. equities as the trading day wears on. While many U.S. players are on vacation, there will be some late arriving daily volume with the FOMC Minutes. A move is possible toward today’s session close.

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