Will the BOC Hike?

July 11 – Economic Events Outlook – BOC & Tariffs in Focus

Posted Wednesday, July 11, 2018 by
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read

The week is starting to get action-packed on Wednesday as we move into the big economic data of the week. And just to add a little more spice, the Trump Administration has once again ramped up their tariffs on China. Proposing $200 billion of more products to be targeted.

This is bound to rile the Chinese so expect the headlines to start flowing throughout the European session and into the US equity open.

Generally, when a Central Bank, such as the BOC is getting set for a rate hike, it gets all the attention. But it appears the news headlines continue to be focused on the ongoing trade wars.

At the same time, we are seeing some weakness in WTI ahead of the official EIA inventories. Thanks to a change of heart by Trump on tariffs. You can read more about the tariff saga in the signals brief.

 

Major Economic Events To Watch

 

EUR – ECB President Mario Draghi Speaking

Mario Draghi will be speaking today at the 9th ECB Statistics Conference “20 years of ESCB statistics: What’s next?” in Frankfurt, Germany. Draghi is lucky to give anything away at his official press conference, let alone a speaking engagement.

US – PPI

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. This is a figure the Fed will watch so it carries weight. And on a day when the USD is going to feel some pressure, this will need to be strong.

CAD – Official Rate Decision

The consensus seems to be that we are going to have a rate hike today in Canada. That will take official rates from 1.25% to 1.5%. The critics are lining up to suggest we don’t need to tighten monetary policy, given the uncertainty that Trump’s tariffs are having on the local economy. Time will tell.

CL – EIA Inventories

Oil is down after a proposed waiver in tariffs by Trump. We saw a draw yesterday and if we get the same number today we might find a bid. We do have support below which will help.

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About the author

Rowan Crosby is our Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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