Let's see if we will get an answer on Brexit this week

Oct 18 – Economic Events Outlook – UK Retail Sales & EU Summit in Focus!

Posted Thursday, October 18, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Good morning, fellow traders.

The dollar index, which measures Greenback value against six major peers, is back and trading near $95.654 after the hawkish FOMC. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting connected expectations for further interest rate hikes by the US central bank.

On day one of the EU Summit, various top European Union officials indicated that the Brexit deal is unlikely to be concluded on Wednesday, October 17. German EU minister Roth served to tie the expectations stating that the deal ultimately has to be done, but the current position is part of the plan to protect each other’s interests.

Today, investor focus shifts on the retail sales from the United Kindom, EU Economic Summit, and the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Here’s what to expect from the market.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

AUD – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate
The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the labor market figures at 00:30 (GMT). The Australian economy saw an impressive growth in the labor market as the unemployment rate fell from 5.3% to 5%. Looks like, the Australian labor market is doing well despite some issues in the housing sector and worries about China. Therefore, the Aussie is still supported over the labor market report.

GBP – Retail Sales m/m
The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 8:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In August, the retail sales jumped by 0.3% vs. the forecast of -0.2%.

This month, economists are expecting a drop of -0.3% in retail sales. A negative number of sales indicate a slower inflation and slack in the economy. Therefore, the Sterling bulls can face challenges today.

EUR – EU Economic Summit
Today is the second day for the European Union economic summit. The leaders of the European Union, which still includes the United Kingdom, are due to meet about a range of global economic issues, including Brexit and the economy, in Brussels.

The most likely agenda is likely to be sharing the progress on the Brexit deal from both sides as well as the debt crisis faced by Italy. The uncertainties are there and you need to be ready to capture a sudden dip in stock markets and a jump in the safe haven assets.

USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Philly Fed usually comes with volatility and trading opportunities. The index is expected to drop to 19.7 from 22.9. There will be a nice buy opportunity in the Greenback if the index surprisingly gains more than 26/27.

Good luck and stay tuned to FX Leaders for forex trading signals & ideas.

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