Is Theresa May Going This Week, Leaving Brexit Orphan? - Forex News by FX Leaders
Theresa May resigning?

Is Theresa May Going This Week, Leaving Brexit Orphan?

Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2018 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

British Prime Minister Theresa may is facing a difficult time right now. I mean, we all knew she would have the hardest job of any British Prime Minister since Churchill and she asked for it herself. I say this because she was a remainer during the Brexit campaign, so it doesn’t really make sense to lead the leaving process. So, it was going to be a tough job from the beginning.

A leaver would be better suited to lead the UK out of the EU, since they supposedly had a plan. But, here she is and this might be her last week on the job as Prime Minister of UK.

The EU October summit is history now. The hopes were that UK and the EU would finally reach an agreement in that meeting, but it only got worse. The EU rejected the Chequers plan that May had formulated so Britain was left with no choice but to leave the Irish border open, with a backstop.

Theresa May Bluffing

After Theresa May left the EU summit, she said that she was willing to give up on one of her main Brexit demands. The main demand is the Irish border, so everyone thought that’s what she was talking about.

But no, she meant extending the transition period, perhaps by another year and then placing a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This shows how desperate she is right now because both sides don’t want an extension. The EU doesn’t like it because it will push the limbo one more year and by now I’m pretty sure they won’t find a solution in a year either, since they failed to do so in two years.

Conservatives Want Out ASAP

The Conservative Party wants to get out as soon as possible, so there will be no chance of the UK getting stuck in a customs union with the EU. Therefore, her side doesn’t like that idea either. Even the DUP party of Northern Ireland or the SNP (Scottish national Party) didn’t support that idea.

Vote of No Confidence

Sky News reported yesterday that Theresa May has only 72 hours to save her job. The Conservative MPs have to send 48 letters to the 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party backbenchers and after that she will have to go through the vote of no confidence which will need 156 votes to vote her out.

The dissent in the Conservative Party has been growing and the proposal to extend the transition period has increased it further. So, we might see a vote of no confidence soon, but the Tories (conservatives) have to make sure to gather all the votes needed (156) to vote her out, otherwise they won’t be able to do so for another year.

The GBP

So, we have to see what goes on at the 1922 Committee. If they meet this week and the situation looks bad for Theresa May, then the above scenario is likely to take place. That would be the beginning of the next bearish leg for the GBP and GBP/USD in particular, which could be worth several hundred pips at least. You can just follow us for live updates on this matter and a possible trade on it, since this is what we do.

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About the author

Skerdian Meta // Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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