Morning Brief, Nov 15 – Top Forex Trade Setups, Retail Sales on Radar!
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
- The US dollar weakens after the consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the biggest gain since January, after edging up 0.1% in September.
- Overall, the CPI increased 2.5%, pulling up from September’s 2.3% rise in the 12 months through October.
- Today, the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales is scheduled to be released from the US and the UK.
- Quick trade plan for GBP/USD and economic events in focus.
GBP/USD – Theresa May Secures Support
A day before, the British Pound surged following reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May obtained support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal. The agreement retains the UK within the customs union of the EU for an indefinite amount of time and covers a 21-month transformation period after UK’s departure in March next year.
The British Pound is taking a slight reversal as bears have started taking profits. The GBP/USD is trading near 1.2880 after falling to 1.2840. But the renewed Brexit concerns are seeing the Pound get hindered in the broader market scope, with earlier hopes for a last-minute agreement emerging this week once again getting beaten on the rocks.
GBP/USD – Technical Outlook
On the 4 hour chart, the cable took a bullish turn to test the resistance level at $1.3025, but it failed to give us a bullish crossover. This signifies uncertainty regarding the bullish reversal in the pair. The GBP/USD pair may face an immediate resistance near $1.3025 and the violation of this level may add further buying until $1.3100, while the support prevails at $1.2920.
Key Economic Events To Watch Today
GBP – Retail Sales m/m: The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 9:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In October, the retail sales plunged by -0.8% vs. the forecast of -0.4%.
This month, economists are expecting a jump of 0.2% in retail sales. A positive number for sales indicates a potential growth in inflation and optimism in the economy. Therefore, the Sterling bears can face challenges today.
USD – Retail Sales m/m: The Census Bureau is due to release the retail sales data at 13:30 (GMT). Economists are expecting a 0.6% rise in retail sales and 0.5% rise in core retail sales which is beating the previous month’s 0.1% and -0.1% respectively. A higher number of sales indicate a higher inflation and growing economy. So, the positive data will be good for the Greenback.
Daily Technical Levels
Key Trading Level: 1.2962
GBP/USD – Trade Plan
The idea is to stay bullish above $1.3025 with 20 pips stop and take profit at 1.3100.