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Morning Brief, Nov 15 – Top Forex Trade Setups, Retail Sales on Radar!
  • The US dollar weakens after the consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the biggest gain since January, after edging up 0.1% in September.
  • Overall, the CPI increased 2.5%, pulling up from September’s 2.3% rise in the 12 months through October.
  • Today, the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales is scheduled to be released from the US and the UK.
  • Quick trade plan for GBP/USD and economic events in focus.

GBP/USD – Theresa May Secures Support

A day before, the British Pound surged following reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May obtained support from her Cabinet for a draft Brexit deal. The agreement retains the UK within the customs union of the EU for an indefinite amount of time and covers a 21-month transformation period after UK’s departure in March next year.

The British Pound is taking a slight reversal as bears have started taking profits. The GBP/USD is trading near 1.2880 after falling to 1.2840. But the renewed Brexit concerns are seeing the Pound get hindered in the broader market scope, with earlier hopes for a last-minute agreement emerging this week once again getting beaten on the rocks.

GBP/USD – Technical Outlook

On the 4 hour chart, the cable took a bullish turn to test the resistance level at $1.3025, but it failed to give us a bullish crossover. This signifies uncertainty regarding the bullish reversal in the pair. The GBP/USD pair may face an immediate resistance near $1.3025 and the violation of this level may add further buying until $1.3100, while the support prevails at $1.2920.


Key Economic Events To Watch Today

GBP – Retail Sales m/m: The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 9:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In October, the retail sales plunged by -0.8% vs. the forecast of -0.4%.

This month, economists are expecting a jump of 0.2% in retail sales. A positive number for sales indicates a potential growth in inflation and optimism in the economy. Therefore, the Sterling bears can face challenges today.

USD – Retail Sales m/m: The Census Bureau is due to release the retail sales data at 13:30 (GMT). Economists are expecting a 0.6% rise in retail sales and 0.5% rise in core retail sales which is beating the previous month’s 0.1% and -0.1% respectively. A higher number of sales indicate a higher inflation and growing economy. So, the positive data will be good for the Greenback.

Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance
1.2876        1.3062
1.2775        1.3148
1.2589        1.3335
Key Trading Level: 1.2962

GBP/USD – Trade Plan

The idea is to stay bullish above $1.3025 with 20 pips stop and take profit at 1.3100.

Good luck!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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