Crude Oil Inventories Are In, $50.00 On The Horizon
Shain Vernier • 1 min read
WTI crude oil has posted a strong daily rally and is in position to test the $50.00 level in the near future. Intrasession bids hit the market consistently until the release of the EIA crude oil stocks report at 11:00 PM EST. Since that time, WTI has experienced a retracement and is attempting to post an intraday recovery.
Here is a look at this week’s holiday-delayed inventory cycle:
Event Actual Projected Previous
API Crude Oil Stocks -4.50M NA 6.92M
EIA Crude Oil Stocks 0.007M -3.086M -0.046M
In short, the EIA number came in better than expected and up modestly from the previous release. However, the API reported a rather substantial draw on supply and an almost 10 million barrel week-over-week drop.
February WTI Crude Oil Futures
After a post-EIA rejection of daily topside resistance, February WTI crude oil futures are rotating near $48.00.
Here are the levels to watch as we roll toward the end of today’s session:
- Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, $49.10
- Resistance(2): Daily SMA, $50.51
- Support(1): Psyche Level, $45.00
Overview: Throughout the week, I have talked extensively about the likelihood of WTI testing either $50.00 or $40.00 by weeks end. It looks like this prediction may fall flat, with today’s session high stalling at $49.22.
However, February WTI futures are in a strong position and may be poised to break the daily topside resistance levels early next week. If we see a rally above the Bollinger MP on Monday, then a test of $50.00 will come to pass very quickly. Should this scenario play out, it is a bullish early-year sign for WTI crude oil in 2019.