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Economic Events Outlook, Feb 15 – What to Expect from Gold on Friday?

Happy Friday, traders.
We made it through another volatile week. The market was quite volatile but traded mostly in sideways range. The Greenback trimmed lower against the bucket of other currencies on Friday as shaky US retail sales data bolstered expectations of a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Besides, the market awaits developments in trade talks between Washington and Beijing.

The yellow metal gold traded steady on Friday as the dollar weakened slightly on the back of disappointing retail sales. Today, the investor focus remains on the US consumer confidence and the German inflation figures.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

GBP – Retail Sales m/m
The Office for National Statistics is due to release the retail sales data at 9:30 (GMT). It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. In December, the UK retail sales plunged by -0.9% vs. the forecast of -0.8%.

This month, economists are expecting a gain of 0.2% in retail sales. A negative number of sales indicate slower inflation and slacks in the economy, and vice versa. Sterling may gain support over positive forecast today.

USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

At 15:00 (GMT), the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment will remain in focus. It’s a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.

As per economists’ forecast, the data is expected to rise slightly from 91.2 to 93.3, which means the consumers feel more confident about the US economy and it may drag more demand for the US dollar.

GOLD – XAU/USD – Trading the Sideways Channel

Due to the lack of any major economic events, the yellow metal continues to trade sideways. Gold is still enjoying a wide trading range of $1,315 – $1,300. The RSI and Stochastics are tossing in buying and selling ranges. While moving averages are giving a neutral signal.

The bullish breakout at $1,315 can lead gold price towards $1,325 while below $1,315, gold can again offer us sell opportunity.

Support    Resistance
1305.22      1317.25
1297.8         1321.85
1285.78      1333.8
Key Trading Level: 1309.83

GOLD – XAU/USD – Trade Idea
The idea is to stay bearish below the upper range $1,315 and to take buying positions above $1,300, the psychological level. Whereas, I will be looking to go long on the violation of $1,315 level.

Good luck today, and have a lovely weekend!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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