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USD Extends Post-FED Recovery

The past five sessions have been good ones for the Greenback. Following last Wednesday’s extremely dovish FOMC Projections and FED Interest Rate Decision, the bottom fell out of the USD. Now, only seven days later, the dollar appears to be back on solid ground.

When it comes to any currency, central bank actions largely dictate exchange rate valuations. This was certainly the case last week. While the markets expected interest rates to be held static, few predicted the outcome of the FED’s Dot Plot and FOMC Projections. Only one rate hike until the end of 2020? Considerable slowing of U.S. economic growth by the end of 2019? To say the least, the tone of last Wednesday sent the Greenback reeling.

June USD Index Futures: Technical Outlook

For all intents and purposes, the June USD Index has weathered the FED storm successfully. Rates have steadily risen and are threatening to run at 2019’s high (97.160).

June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

As long as the June USD Index stays above these support levels, a short-term bullish bias is warranted:

  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 96.185
  • Support(3): Bollinger MP, 96.025

Overview: At press time, this market is testing the 62% Current Wave Retracement (96.400) on the daily chart. In the event this level is taken out, further gains toward 97.000 will become probable. If it holds, look for rotation back toward the 96.150 level ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. GDP release.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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