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U.S. Retail Sales (Feb.) Lag Expectations

Since the dismal report from last December, there has been an added emphasis placed on U.S. Retail Sales figures. In fact, many of the economists currently predicting recession have cited the lagging performance of retail as a primary reason why. Today brought more concerns over the American retail sector as another sub-par report was released to the public.

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint Industry Estimates

In total, today’s U.S. Retail Sales statistics for February came in well below estimates. Here is a quick look at the data:

Event                                                           Actual          Projected      Previous

Retail Sales (MoM, Feb.)                              -0.2%               0.3%                0.7%

Retail Sales except Autos (MoM, Feb.)      -0.4%               0.4%                 1.4%

On a positive note, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) outperformed expectations. The ISM PMI posted a figure of 55.3, above the projected 54.5.

At press time (11:15 AM EST), today’s economic data releases aren’t having a huge impact. Stocks continue their rally and the USD index is slightly in the red.

June USD Index Futures: Technical Outlook

The daily bullish trend for June USD Index futures is still technically valid. But, for how long?

June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

In the event the USD index extends early losses, a key area of support may come into play. Here are the levels to watch as this week unfolds:

  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave, 96.245
  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 96.240
  • Support(3): Bollinger MP, 96.175

Overview: Today’s action in the USD index is relatively tight. I expect this market to open up considerably in the coming sessions. For now, a bullish bias is appropriate given the daily technicals. As long as rates remain above downside support, the uptrend is valid and a new high for 2019 may come to pass by the weekly closing bell.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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