U.S. NFP Headlines Friday’s Session

Posted Thursday, April 4, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

If you are a fundamental trader, then the Friday session in the USD/CAD is a day for you. Featuring a bullish WTI market, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and Canadian Unemployment, the USD/CAD will be alive ahead of the weekly closing bell.

Today’s action in the Loonie has been modest, with the USD/CAD posting a tight 36 pip daily range. Here are a few items to watch as the Friday session approaches:

  • May WTI crude oil remains in bullish territory, just beneath the $63.00 level.
  • U.S. NFP (March) are expected to shatter February’s numbers.
  • The Canadian Unemployment Rate (March) is projected to hold firm at 5.8%.

In the event that WTI breaks out to the bull and NFP disappoints, the USD/CAD may be in a position to sell off. Let’s dig into the daily technicals and outline a few support and resistance levels.

USD/CAD Technicals

As of this writing (about 12:45 PM EST), the USD/CAD is trading at daily topside resistance.

USD/CAD, Daily Chart
USD/CAD, Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch going into tomorrow’s session:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement, 1.3355
  • Resistance(2): Bollinger MP/Daily SMA, 1.3363/4
  • Resistance(3): 50% Current Wave Retracement, 1.3373

Bottom Line: At this point, one can make a strong case to short this market ahead of the Friday session. Given WTI is in an uptrend, NFP has a good chance of underperforming, and a harsh winter tempering Canadian Unemployment expectations, the USD/CAD appears poised to fall.

A bit earlier, my colleague Skerdian outlined the technical scenario facing the USD/CAD on the 240 minute chart. My daily technicals concur with his analysis. For now, going short from the 1.3350 area with an initial stop above 1.3375 is a solid trade to the bear.

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