U.S. NFP Headlines Friday's Session - Forex News by FX Leaders
USD/CAD

U.S. NFP Headlines Friday’s Session

Posted Thursday, April 4, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

If you are a fundamental trader, then the Friday session in the USD/CAD is a day for you. Featuring a bullish WTI market, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and Canadian Unemployment, the USD/CAD will be alive ahead of the weekly closing bell.

Today’s action in the Loonie has been modest, with the USD/CAD posting a tight 36 pip daily range. Here are a few items to watch as the Friday session approaches:

  • May WTI crude oil remains in bullish territory, just beneath the $63.00 level.
  • U.S. NFP (March) are expected to shatter February’s numbers.
  • The Canadian Unemployment Rate (March) is projected to hold firm at 5.8%.

In the event that WTI breaks out to the bull and NFP disappoints, the USD/CAD may be in a position to sell off. Let’s dig into the daily technicals and outline a few support and resistance levels.

USD/CAD Technicals

As of this writing (about 12:45 PM EST), the USD/CAD is trading at daily topside resistance.

USD/CAD, Daily Chart
USD/CAD, Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch going into tomorrow’s session:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement, 1.3355
  • Resistance(2): Bollinger MP/Daily SMA, 1.3363/4
  • Resistance(3): 50% Current Wave Retracement, 1.3373

Bottom Line: At this point, one can make a strong case to short this market ahead of the Friday session. Given WTI is in an uptrend, NFP has a good chance of underperforming, and a harsh winter tempering Canadian Unemployment expectations, the USD/CAD appears poised to fall.

A bit earlier, my colleague Skerdian outlined the technical scenario facing the USD/CAD on the 240 minute chart. My daily technicals concur with his analysis. For now, going short from the 1.3350 area with an initial stop above 1.3375 is a solid trade to the bear.

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About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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