GDP Smashes Expectations, Stocks Flat

Posted Friday, April 26, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

At times, the markets can be wildly unpredictable and counterintuitive. Today’s post-U.S. GDP release has been a prime example of this phenomenon. Earlier today, the much-anticipated U.S. Q1 GDP figure smashed expectations (2.0%), coming in at 3.2%. Wall Street has done an about-face, with all three leading indices in the red through the first half-hour of trade.

Following brief price action to the bear, gold has gained bullish steam. In addition, the USD has fallen across the majors. I guess the markets had Q1 GDP pegged all along.

DJIA Slides Following Outstanding U.S. GDP

Trading news releases the nature of today’s U.S. Gross Domestic Product report presents many challenges. In the modern digital market, order flow spikes to astronomical levels, creating artificial price action. It is true that the market is always right. However, on short time frames, economic news releases often render natural price discovery fiction.

June E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart
June E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart

If the damage gets worse for the June E-mini DOW, here are a few support levels that may come into play later this afternoon:

  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 26257
  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 26180

Bottom Line: Today’s crazy post-GDP action may bring a viable long entry to the June E-mini DOW. For the rest of the day, I will have buy orders queued up from 26261. With an initial stop at 26144, this short-term position trade produces 150 ticks on slightly better than 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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