Active trading conditions have hit the EUR/USD this week, producing a significant rally. Today’s volatility has been extreme, as the ECB held rates static and Eurozone GDP hit projections. On the flip side, U.S. employment showed some signs of weakness, prompting many to anticipate a disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls (May) report on Friday. No matter the reason, the Euro is on the move vs the USD.
A Daily Megaphone For The EUR/USD
The EUR/USD daily chart brings us a rare three-session megaphone pattern. A megaphone is the opposite of a pennant, as the trading range extends past the previous period’s high and low. For the EUR/USD, this is a sign of volatility and trader indecision, centered around the value area of 1.1225 – 1.1275.
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It has been a news-driven week for the Euro and Greenback. For now, the key technical levels are 1.1300 and 1.1200, with the important fundamental being tomorrow’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Analysts are expecting the figure to come in at 185,000, down from April’s 263,000. With so many looking for the U.S. economy to begin slowing, there will be an added emphasis on this event.
Bottom Line: If we see the EUR/USD continue today’s rally, a short from April’s high will come into play. Until elected, I will have sell orders queued up from 1.1324. With an initial stop at 1.1352, this trade produces 20 pips on a sub 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.
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