Daily Briefing, June 10 – Economic Events Outlook: Sterling in Highlights

Posted Monday, June 10, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Happy Monday, traders.

It’s been a great start to the week with a quick take profit in our gold trading signal. More trades are coming ahead; the British Pound remains in the highlights today as it’s the only economy releasing tier-one economic events.

As expected, gold slipped over diminished safe-haven appeal after US President Donald Trump said that the United States and Mexico had signed an accord to bypass tariffs that were listed to go into effect on Monday. This triggered massive volatility at the market open time, and we also saw gaps in the market.

Key Economic Events Today

Looking ahead to the economic calendar, the European banks will be closed in observance of Whit Monday. However, UK’s GDP and Manufacturing Production remain in the highlights today.

GDP m/m – 8:30 GMT
We should monitor the GDP data, which is forecast to remain unchanged at -0.1% as the British economy grew at a slower pace in Q2 2019.

Especially after the downbeat inflationary assessment by Mark Carney & team, we can expect a drop in GDP. The Sterling is under heavy selling pressure as the BOE Gov Mark Carney hasn’t said much about the next rate hike. The rate hike sentiments are falling apart, causing bearishness in the Pound. By the way, a slight divergence in the data can cause a considerable movement in the Cable.

Manufacturing Production m/m – 8:30 GMT
Alongside, the Office for National Statistics is also due to release manufacturing production numbers. Economists are expecting a drop in production by -1.1% vs. 0.9%. Looks like the Sterling is going to face bearish pressure on Monday in the wake of adverse economic events.

MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks – 9:00 GMT
External BOE MPC Member Silvana Tenreyro is due to speak about monetary policy at the Bank of Portugal, in Lisbon. Audience questions are expected, which may or may not trigger volatility in the market.

MPC Member Saunders Speaks – 17:00 GMT
Besides Tenreyro, an external BOE MPC Member Michael Saunders is also due to speak at Southampton Solen University, in the United Kingdom.

Since the BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. House will be opened for audience questions which could trigger sudden moves over uncertain remarks. Good luck and stay tuned for a quick trade plan on GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Tests Double Top – Can GDP Figures Trigger a Breakout?

During the previous week, the British Pound has benefited from the dollar’s broad weakness, extending its weekly bullish trend up to 1.2753, its highest in almost three weeks. The pair settled at around 1.2735, as political uncertainty in the UK maintained a subdued demand for Sterling.

Technically speaking, the Cable is facing stiff resistance around 1.2750 while holding right above 20 and 50 periods EMA. Both these moving averages are supporting the pair above 1.2700, a psychological level.

A positive GDP can trigger a bullish breakout, helping GBP/USD reach 1.2875. Whereas, negative GDP may help bears to hit 1.2650 and 1.2570 targets today.

Good luck and stay tuned for quick trade ideas in other pairs!


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