Daily Briefing, June 14 – Economic Events Brief – US & Chinese Events In Focus
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Happy Friday, traders.
The economic calendar is fully loaded with top-tier economic events, from China and the US. It’s going to be a volatile session today, especially the New York session. Let’s plan the day to take maximum benefit of these events.
Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today
CNY – Industrial Production y/y – 7:00 GMT
It’s a change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. The figure is releasing along with Chinese Retail Sales y/y, and due to the high importance of the Retail Sales y/y, investors usually ignore the effect of industrial production unless there’s a massive divergence between expected and actual release. Economists are expecting no change in Industrial Production of 5.4% this month.
CNY – Retail Sales y/y – 7:00 GMT
On the other hand, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will be releasing Chinese retail sales data. Surprisingly, despite the trade war, data is expected to surge by 8.0% vs. 7.2% beforehand.
USD – Retail Sales -12:30 GMT
The US consumer has taken a break in its shopping spree. Back in April, the total volume of sales increased by only 0.1% while core sales squeezed by 0.2%. A bounce is likely in the report for May, but probably only a moderate one.
USD Consumer Confidence – 14:00 GMT
Consumer confidence improved in May, but the final figure saw a downgrade, taking out some of the sting. After a score of exactly 100, the preliminary figure for June from the University of Michigan has probably dropped below the round number. Consumer confidence is considered a leading indicator of consumption — yet the correlation is not always there.
GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks – 12:55 GMT
BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Women in Banking and Finance Awards for Achievement lunch, in London. Audience questions are expected. Not much volatility is expected from the event as it’s a formal lunch event.
USD – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 14:00 GMT
The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment will remain in focus. It’s a survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions.
As per economists’ forecast, the data is expected to dip from 100.0 to 98.1, which means the consumers feel less confident about the US economy, perhaps due to the ongoing trade war with China. Investors are still wondering who’s going to win this war as now China is also giving a hard time to the US. As a result, it may place bearish pressure on the US dollar today.