Who Wants to Trade the Climb in GBP After the CPI Figures?

Posted Wednesday, June 19, 2019 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The inflation report from Britain was released a while ago this morning and it was sort of neutral, which is sending the GBP higher. I assume markets were expecting a softer report, hence the bullish move in GBP/USD which has climbed around 40 pips this morning. Headline CPI YoY ticked lower as expected, but at 2.0% it is at a decent level and much better than many developed countries.

Core CPI (consumer price index) also ticked lower to 1.7% from 1.8% but it was better than the expectations of 1.6% and it is growing at a decent pace as well. The house price index HPI remained steady in April growing by 1.4%, the same as in March while expectations were for a slowdown to 1.1%.

The retail price index RPI also remained unchanged in May growing by 3.0% on an annualized basis, while CPI MoM increased by 0.3% in May. So, inflation is holding up well in Britain, which is helping the GBP. But, this won’t last long because politics are a total mess right now in the UK, Brexit will likely end up with UK leaving with no deal, and the UK economy is on a weakening trend.

So, this latest jump is a good opportunity to go short on the GBP, although it would be better to short it against other majors, because the FED might sound pretty dovish later today in their meeting which would send the USD crumbling lower.

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