Forex Signals Brief for June 27: US GDP in Focus
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Markets have had a relatively quiet start to the week as we await both today’s US GDP print and the weekends G20 meeting.
The big movers over the last 24 hours are clearly BTC which is on a huge heater at the moment, as well as WTI which saw a bigger than expected inventory draw. But it is Bitcoin that is really back grabbing the headlines as I pointed out earlier today.
Today the focus will come back to some of the economic fundamentals that have been missing so far this week as we get the final revision of Q1 GDP.
GDP in the US has been on the slide a little and we are expecting the number to be 3.1% where it initially was at 3.2%. A number above 3% is still a strong result in my opinion and comes after a really solid 2018, where GDP tagged 4.2%. That was one of the reasons the FOMC felt OK with hiking rates. Since then we have seen GDP weaken, but overall it is not looking terrible for the US economy. The only real concern is what we should expect going forward and lower rates would again prop up any weakness.
Elsewhere today, the calendar remains a little thin with German CPI likely to move the EUR/USD a touch. While later we get pending home sales from the US as well.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team had another strong day yesterday with three more winners adding to the 10 straight we had before that. A really great week from the guys so far.
Gold – Pending Signal
GOLD has had on a bit of a wild ride this week as well since price took out $1400. It pushed as high as $1440, before sharply retracing. We are now back at $1400 and looking for a short, either on a weak bounce or a break of that level.
EUR/CHF – Pending Signal
The EUR/CHF remains weak after breaking through a few key support levels. Price is currently in a range and if it breaks down we have a nice level to risk off. This is starting to look like a bit of a flag pattern, but I’d like to see a break of the lower end as confirmation.
BTC has had a massive few hours this morning as price broke through the $13,000 mark and ran into $14,000. There were then reports that Coinbase, a major exchange, went down and price then tumbled almost $2,000 in minutes.
As I mentioned yesterday, the bulls are in control here and it is a risky game to be looking to short here. The sector is strong and it feels like 2017 all over again.
$12,000 is shaping up as a key level at the moment. If price breaks that might be short-term bearish, but if it holds (as it has so far), we could get another leg higher.