NZD/USD has been on a bearish trend for about a year, but in June we saw a bullish reversal. The price reversed below $65 and it is now trading above $67, which means a 250 pip climb, more or less. This pair has pushed above the 200 SMA on the daily chart, but hasn’t moved too far from it, so it might still turn into resistance.

Although, for now, NZD/USD is still on a bullish trend on smaller time-frame charts. This pair spiked down last Wednesday after the 0.7% decline in the food prices, but it reversed higher after Powell’s dovish remarks and has been on a bullish run since then.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates in the previous meeting, but the situation is better in New Zealand than in Australia, hence the bullish trend in the Kiwi. The rate cut from the RBNZ also removes the risk for further rate cuts in the near future, which is another positive thing for the NZD. The price action of the last two days also tells us that buyers are still in control.

This pair retraced lower yesterday, but the fall stopped right at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H2 chart and it has reversed higher now. We went long on AUD/USD yesterday after the pullback in commodity currencies, but now I think that we should have gone long on this pair instead.