Forex Signals Brief for Aug 1: Attention Turns to the BOE
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
It has been a huge week of central bank announcements and the action is set to continue today with the Bank of England.
Yesterday all the focus was on the FOMC, and in many ways, while there was a 25bp cut, the guidance left more questions than answers, although Powell has ruled out significant easing. The USD has been firming throughout the Asian session on the back of the less dovish outlook so that will be a theme to watch headed into the European open.
Today the attention will be on the BOE although the expectation is for no change in rates. The waters have been a little murky in the UK in recent weeks, following the resignation of Teresa May and the fact that the new leader Boris Johnson appears to be happy to head to a hard-Brexit.
This might make it a tricky environment for the BOE to operate in, but we will listen with interest as to what will be in store for monetary policy as well as the economic outlook. It could be a busy day for the GBP/USD as a result. While many investors are predicting the BOE will follow the lead of the other major central banks – don’t be so sure.
We also get some key data for the EUR/USD with German Manufacturing PMI being the main event of interest. However, we have a number of PMI releases from across the Eurozone.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with 1 win from 5 signals after some wild volatility hurt a couple of our positions.
AUD/USD – Pending Signal
The AUD/USD has been hit hard in recent days as the FOMC outlook has really spurred the USD. Today we saw private PMI data from China that was better than expected and that has given the Aussie a lift. However, given the fundamentals, this might be a good opportunity to hunt for another short signal looking for more downside.
GBP/JPY – Pending Signal
The GBP/JPY has sold off sharply in recent days as Brexit worries still hang over the head of the nation. We will likely be waiting on the BOE prior to shorting this pair, but it is on watch for more downside.
BTC has managed to reclaim the $10,000 level after what has been a rough month for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
After dumping as far as $9,000, the bulls have so far fought hard to regain control as I spoke about earlier today.
The next key level that I want to see hold is $10,225, then I will be a lot more confident in hunting for a long position. Given the uncertainty around the US Government enquiry, there is still some downside risk here.