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July NFP Falls, S&P 500 Follows

Posted Friday, August 2, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The first ninety minutes of trade on Wall Street have been brutal for U.S. stocks. Tariffs, falling monthly NFP, and interest rate concerns have traders taking risk off the table going into the weekend break. At this hour (11:00 AM EST), the DJIA DOW (-322), S&P 500 SPX (-38), and NASDAQ (-154) are trending south. It appears that a perfect storm is hitting the U.S. indices.

July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Fall From June Levels

The numbers from this morning’s jobs report are in and investors are taking a bearish view of the figures. Here is a quick look at the hard data:

Event                                                                  Actual    Projected     Previous

Non-Farm Payrolls (July)                                   164K          164K               193K

Unemployment Rate (July)                                3.7%           3.7%               3.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM, July)              3.2%          3.1%                3.1%

In short, U.S. unemployment remains at 50-year lows, but NFP dropped by 29,000 jobs in July. This isn’t the best news for the S&P 500, as the markets are sensitive to anything that suggests the FED is correct in terms of slowing economic growth. Following the first rate cut in a decade, many in the markets think the end of the expansion is near.

S&P 500 Plummets, On The Verge Of Correction

The S&P 500 is in the midst of a steep intraday downtrend. Prices have fallen off the table and continue to hang in bearish territory.

September E-mini S&P 500 Future (ES), Daily Chart
September E-mini S&P 500 Future (ES), Daily Chart

Overview: The key level to watch for the September E-mini S&P 500 is the 38% retracement of this summer’s rally (2916.00). Price has already put in a hard test of this area ― if the selling continues, the S&P 500 is going much, much lower.

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About the author

Shain Vernier // US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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