No-Deal Brexit Likelihood Increases, Pound Could Fall Below 1.20

The likelihood of Britain leaving the EU without a deal in hand have risen considerably higher following the appointment of PM Boris Johnson

GBP/USD

According to latest Reuters polls, the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU without a deal in hand have risen considerably higher following the appointment of Boris Johnson as the PM. The median forecast of the poll held in the first week of August now stands at 35% for a chaotic, hard Brexit, up from 30% in July.

Boris Johnson, a known Brexiteer, has campaigned numerous times for Britain to leave on the October 31 deadline, with or without a deal in place. Ever since assuming office, he has called for renegotiating the Brexit deal, especially the Irish backstop issue. However, the EU has repeatedly emphasized their disinterest in revisiting the Brexit deal and has maintained that the current withdrawal agreement is the best offer for Britain.

The Reuters poll also anticipates that GBP could fall further to trade between 1.17 and 1.20 in the coming weeks over increased concerns of a no-deal Brexit. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at around 1.216, slightly higher due to a weakness in the US dollar.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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