A Pre-FOMC Minutes Look At The EUR/USD

Posted Tuesday, August 20, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Wednesday’s 2:00 PM EST installment of the FOMC Minutes will be the most-watched event of its kind in recent history. Coming on the heels of the FED’s first rate cut since 2008, traders will be searching for clues on the future of U.S. monetary policy. Many are wondering how deep the divide between FOMC members really was at the July meeting; and, more importantly, if the FED is genuinely concerned about the short-term future of American economics. 

To complicate matters, Wednesday evening marks the beginning of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. The forum-style setting will include financial heavyweights from around the world. Statements from Jackson Hole have been known to sway markets ― are we in for some FOMC-fueled late-week fireworks from Wyoming?

Well, when it comes to the markets and trading, anything is possible.

EUR/USD Rallies Ahead of FOMC Minutes

It has been a mixed bag for the Greenback throughout today’s forex session. One of the weaker performances has been against the euro, as evidenced by the chart below.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Bottom Line: Until today, the EUR/USD has been in a tailspin, closing in the red five sessions in a row. That streak appears to be over as bids continue to hit the EUR/USD in mass. If the rally gains momentum, a shorting opportunity may set up from the daily 38% Current Wave Fibonacci retracement level (1.1136).

As long as last week’s low at 1.1066 remains intact, I will have sell orders queued up from 1.1129. With an initial stop at 1.1154, this trade returns a tight 25 pips on a basic 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

It is tough to overstate the importance of tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes release. Be sure to check in throughout the coming forex session for insight and analysis facing the blockbuster event.

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