U.S. Core Consumption In On Schedule

Posted Friday, August 30, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

During today’s pre-Wall Street open, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Core Personal Consumption report from July. Much to the chagrin of many in the financial industry, the figures came in as expected. While Core Consumption is best classified as a secondary market mover, it is a strong indicator of economic performance. According to July’s consumption numbers, the U.S. economy is holding its own.

Core Consumption Comes In On Schedule

Here is a quick look at this morning’s key numbers:

Event                                                                                             Actual      Projected       Previous

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (MoM, July)          0.2%             0.2%                 0.2%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (YoY, July)             1.6%             1.6%                1.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM, July)                  0.2%              NA                   0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (YoY, July)                     1.4%              NA                  1.3%

All in all, this is a positive group of metrics, featuring very few surprises. At least for July, consumption was stable. Equities players have taken note of the release, bidding U.S. stocks higher. On the opening bell, the DJIA DOW (+125), S&P 500 SPX (+14), and NASDAQ (+34) are all in the green.

DJIA Posts A Strong Week

It has been a solid final week of August for the DOW. Values are back above 26500 and are threatening to push higher. While August will finish as a negative month, U.S. large caps are showing signs of life as the fall season rapidly approaches.

September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart
September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart

Overview: For the time being, the key level to watch for today’s trade of the September E-mini DOW is the 62% Current Wave retracement at 26408. As long as values are above this level, an intraday bullish bias is warranted. Should rates fall below 26408, a late-day selloff is certainly a possibility.

If you are trading the indices, remember that today is the final session of the calendar month. Be on the lookout for enhanced volatility as institutional players balance their books ahead of the closing bell.

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