Is the BOE Going to Nod for a Rate Cut Soon After Weaker Inflation Figures Yesterday?
The BOE has been steady when most major central banks have cut rates, but inflation weakened considerably in August.
This week is packed with meetings from major central banks. Yesterday, the FED cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.00% from 2.25%. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its meeting in the Asian session, while the Swiss national Bank (SNB) did so just a while ago.
Later on today, we have the meeting at the Bank of England (BOE). The BOE has been steady in recent meetings, despite Brexit and some sectors of the economy falling into contraction. The UK GDP also contracted in Q2 and initially experts predicted another contraction in Q3,which would mean technical recession.
But, in recent weeks we have seen some impressive data from Britain, which suggest that the country might narrowly avoid a recession. But, the main indicators which has kept the BOE on hold have been earnings, which are surging and, more importantly, inflation.
Inflation has been holding up really well at around 2.0%, but yesterday’s CPI (consumer price index) report showed that headline inflation fell from 21.% to 1.7% YoY in August and core CPI fell from 1.9% to 1.5%. This means a 4 point decline in a month which is considerable.
So, there’s a chance that the BOE might add some dovish remarks in today’s statement. There’s no press conference following the meeting, so we have to look into the statement for any changes to the rhetoric. On the other hand, Brexit might be delayed again, so this statement will be a bit tricky. We will cover it live on the economic calendar section, so follow us there guys.
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