It has been a rough four sessions for USD/CHF bulls, with rates falling more than 90 pips on consistent selling. This market has been dominated by the bears amid a resurgence in the safe-havens. While the daily uptrend that began on August 13 is still technically valid, it is undergoing a stiff challenge.
A little past 10:00 AM EST, lagging Consumer Confidence and Richmond FED Manufacturing reports were released to the public. Both came as a modest surprise to the markets and prompted a shift in equities and safe-haven action.
For the time being, what once looked like a positive day on Wall Street is turning negative. Subsequently, gold has posted an intraday buy-back and the USD/CHF is continuing its slide to the bear.
USD/CHF Challenges Daily Uptrend
Since the August 13th rally, the USD/CHF put together a net gain of just over 175 pips. Now, it appears that the party may be over and rates headed back down to earth.
Here are the levels to watch in this market for the remainder of the session:
- Resistance(1): Daily SMA, .9913
- Support(1): Bollinger MP, .9878
Overview: At press time (about 11:20 AM EST), the USD/CHF is just off intraday lows near .9875. A short term bounce has developed from the Bollinger MP, which is a key area of downside support. If the .9875 area is taken out, a sizeable bearish run may be in store for midweek trade. Given the sparsely populated U.S. economic calendar, the USD/CHF may be in a position to grind south until Thursday’s Q2 GDP report.