Deutsche Bank Reveals Likelihood for Possible Brexit Scenarios - Forex News by FX Leaders
FTSE on Brexit Woes

Deutsche Bank Reveals Likelihood for Possible Brexit Scenarios

Posted Thursday, October 3, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 1 min read

According to estimates by the Deutsche Bank, there is a 50% likelihood that Britain will depart from the EU by the end of the year without a deal in place, after a round of general elections. For now, the bank has forecast a 20% possibility that the UK and the EU would be able to reach a “surprise” deal before the October 31 deadline.

In addition, there is a 40% likelihood of a general election resulting in the formation of a caretaker government ahead of Brexit. In the absence of a no-deal Brexit, Deutsche Bank indicates an equal possibility of 25% for each of the following scenarios:

1. Orderly Brexit
2. Second referendum on Brexit
3. Brexit getting scrapped entirely

There is also a 15% possibility of the general elections leading to a no-deal Brexit scenario. The extremely high uncertainty surrounding Brexit so close to the deadline has put significant pressure on British financial markets.

On Wednesday, after PM Boris Johnson presented his so-called ‘final’ Brexit deal, FTSE plummeted 3.2% lower, marking the worst performance in a single trading day in three years. The sudden rush lower wiped out around £58.5bn from Britain’s top 100 listed companies.

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About the author

Arslan Butt // Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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