Deutsche Bank Reveals Likelihood for Possible Brexit Scenarios
Arslan Butt • 1 min read
According to estimates by the Deutsche Bank, there is a 50% likelihood that Britain will depart from the EU by the end of the year without a deal in place, after a round of general elections. For now, the bank has forecast a 20% possibility that the UK and the EU would be able to reach a “surprise” deal before the October 31 deadline.
In addition, there is a 40% likelihood of a general election resulting in the formation of a caretaker government ahead of Brexit. In the absence of a no-deal Brexit, Deutsche Bank indicates an equal possibility of 25% for each of the following scenarios:
1. Orderly Brexit
2. Second referendum on Brexit
3. Brexit getting scrapped entirely
There is also a 15% possibility of the general elections leading to a no-deal Brexit scenario. The extremely high uncertainty surrounding Brexit so close to the deadline has put significant pressure on British financial markets.
On Wednesday, after PM Boris Johnson presented his so-called ‘final’ Brexit deal, FTSE plummeted 3.2% lower, marking the worst performance in a single trading day in three years. The sudden rush lower wiped out around £58.5bn from Britain’s top 100 listed companies.