USD/CAD Holds The Bullish Line
The early 1:15 PM EST halt has come and gone on the CME Globex futures exchange. Commodity futures saw vastly reduced participation during the abbreviated session, led by January WTI crude oil trading a bit over 144,000 contracts. However, prices of WTI held the line north of $58.00 after an early-session test of the $57.75 area. Strong oil pricing has helped to keep a lid on the USD/CAD, but one has to wonder how long rates will remain below October’s High (1.3347).
Although the economic calendar is quiet for the U.S. until next week, Friday features release of the Canadian Q3 GDP figures. Consensus projections expect the number to drop from 3.7% to 1.2%. This is a significant slowdown; if expectations are met, then be on the lookout for the USD/CAD to extend November’s range north.
USD/CAD Hangs Tough In Bullish Territory
For a majority of the past week, the USD/CAD has traded in the vicinity of a macro-78% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3280. Rates are back at this level again today, threatening to form a daily Doji pattern.
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Here are the levels to watch going into tomorrow’s Canadian GDP release:
- Resistance(1): October High, 1.3347
- Support(1): 78% Fibonacci Retracement, 1.3280
- Support(2): Daily SMA, 1.3265
Overview: Holiday volumes have greatly impacted trading ranges across the forex majors. Nonetheless, the USD/CAD is currently hanging on to the intermediate-term uptrend. If we see rates close the session above the macro 78% retracement (1.3280), a post-GDP test of October’s High (1.3347) may develop ahead of Friday’s closing bell.
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