At the half-way point of the U.S. session, the early-December woes are continuing for American stocks. The leading equities markets are showing signs of fatigue, with the DJIA DOW (-360), S&P 500 SPX (-29), and NASDAQ (-80) trending south. It is still very early, but December 2019 is mirroring the price action of December 2018 for U.S. stocks.

Like all sell-offs, this morning’s bearish action is a product of uncertainty. A few untimely comments from President Trump at a London presser earlier today sent another shockwave through the markets. Here are the highlights:

• “A China trade deal is dependent on one thing ― do I want to make it.”
• “I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election [2020] if you want to know the truth.”

Trump’s statements have gone a long way to destabilize popular opinion facing U.S./China trade. With impeachment on the table, and uncertainty surrounding the 2020 election, many are wondering how waiting to close a trade deal is in America’s or Trump’s best interest. These are certainly valid concerns.

In reality, Trump’s statements may be a tactic to apply pressure on China ahead of the December 15 tariff hike. Or, China may not be in any hurry to negotiate with Trump amid the political turmoil. Either way, the equities markets are quickly turning sour and investors are headed for the door.

Safe-Havens Rally With Markets In Turmoil

In a Live Market Update from Monday, I outlined a long trading plan in the Swissy. If you missed it, feel free to check it out here.

Overview: As of press time (about 1:15 PM EST), the USD/CHF has fallen out of bed for the second straight day. Given today’s trade war strife, safe-havens are very likely to continue gaining ground in the short-term.

Moving toward 2020, there are three probabilities to monitor and be aware of. First, the CME FEDWatch Index doesn’t favor any FED policy shift until at least June 2020. At that point, there is only a 49.6% chance of rates being held at current levels (1.75%). Second, the odds of Trump being impeached in the House of Representatives is holding firm at 80% (Predictit.com). Third, the chance of Trump being convicted by the Senate and removed from office has fallen to 12%(Predictit.com). If we see significant moves in the interest rate and Trump removal odds, get ready for volatility to sweep across the markets.