Monthly Inflation Softens in the US, but YoY CPI Jumps Higher
The US inflation report for November was released just a while ago. This is the last decent round of economic data before the FED meeting later this evening, so it holds some importance regarding the FED decision. Although, there wasn’t much change, apart from the YoY number, which has a story behind it. Below are the CPI and core CPI figures from the US for November:
Year-over -year inflation figures
- US November CPI +2.1% YoY vs +2.0% expected
- October CPI stood at 1.8% y/y
- Core YoY CPI excluding food and energy 2.3% vs 2.3% expected
- Prior core CPI ex food and energy stood at 2.3%
- Energy alone came in at -0.6% YoY
Month-over-month data:
- November MoM CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
- October stood at +0.4%
- Core CPI for November remained unchanged at +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Shelter at +0.3% MoM vs +0.1% previously
The average hourly earnings report
- Real hourly wages at 0.0% MoM
- Wages at +1.1% YoY
So, the monthly inflation cooled off a little, but YoY CPI jumped higher to 2.3% from 1.8% in October. This is a decent jump, but the next three months of data in this series are going to be hot because of soft YoY figures from Nov-Jan a year ago. An inflation scare would dent the Fed’s credibility. The risk is that they shift back to a hawkish bias, something that would be a major blow to risk assets.
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