More Trade War Fronts in 2020 Before More Trade Deals
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
US trade representative Peter Navarro was speaking on CNBC a while ago and made a bunch of interesting comments. The Phase One deal is complete for him, although the interesting part is that about intellectual property theft and technology transfer. Below are his main comments:
- China just 1 of several trade deals
- China Phase I deal in the bank
- We look forward to more trade deals in 2020
- Expects UK, Vietnam, Europe trade talks in 2020
- China deal has intellectual property theft pieces that were agreed and may
- In China deal we have a base application for technology transfers
- In China deal financial market access for banks and insurance companies
- Have 200 billion dollars of purchases from China on March 2017 baseline which should take a big chunk out of the US trade deficit with China
- Should be able to get deal signed in January
- Cyber espionage is intolerable and the key issue for 2020.
- Sees closer to 3% GDP growth in 2020
- US has concerns about Huawei hardware, software
- Sees consumers been the anchor for growth in 2020
- Ee are going to get a lift in the trade balance
- The sleeper in growth is the government.
- Tariffs have done a tremendous job of bringing in more investment. Cites auto.
- It will be the roaring 2020s
- Sees 32,000 Dow as a conservative target for the end of 2020
- Structurally the US is down through the 20s. Should bring down the deficit.
- What is missing in the China deal is cyber intrusions into our business interests
- Will spend a lot of time looking at counterfeits and trying to fix that problem with China
- Expects the NASDAQ to outperform the Dow. Boeing has been a drag
“In China deal, we have a base application for technology transfers” said Navarro, although does that mean that technology will be transferred in a more structured way? He also “expects UK, Vietnam, Europe trade talks in 2020”, but they won’t likely come before tariffs, especially with the EU.
Will Trump start more trade war fronts with the EU and Vietnam next year? It might be so, but US presidential elections are scheduled for November, so I think that he might take it easy next year and restart the trade war after the second mandate.