The UK economy has been deteriorating in 2019 and in Q2 the economy contracted, although it just missed recession since it didn’t contract again in Q3, but it contracted again in August and September. In October, the economy fell flat at 0.0%, but today’s revision took it higher to 0.1%.

Although, in November the UK economy fell into contraction again, shrinking by 0.3%, which increases fears of a recession. The BOE tried to sound neutral and not spark panic among GBP traders last year, but in recent weeks we have heard some dovish remarks from them. The odds of the Bank of England cutting interest in September have gone up to the sky.

The GBP continues to be bearish and has moved lower after this GDP report. Below are the details from the GDP report:

• UK November monthly GDP -0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%
• GDP 3M/3M+0.1% vs -0.1% expected
• Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.2%

• Manufacturing production MoM -1.7% vs -0.2% expected
• Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.5%
• Manufacturing production YoY -2.0% vs -1.6% expected
• Prior -1.2%; revised to -0.3%
• Industrial production MoM -1.2% vs +0.1% expected
• Prior +0.1%; revised to +0.4%
• Industrial production YoY -1.6% vs -1.3% expected
• Prior -1.3%; revised to -0.6%
• Construction output MoM +1.9% vs +0.6% expected
• Prior -2.3%; revised to -2.2%
• Construction output YoY +2.0% vs -1.4% expected
• Prior -2.1%; revised to -0.3%
• UK November visible trade balance -£5.3 billion vs -£11.8 billion expected
• Prior -£14.5 billion; revised to -£10.9 billion
• Non-EU trade balance +£1.7 billion vs -£3.5 billion expected
• Prior -£5.7 billion; revised to -£2.6 billion