Less Dovish Remarks From the ECB Minutes

Posted Thursday, January 16, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The European Central Bank has released the minutes from its last meeting. The ECB was growing concerned as the Eurozone economy have deteriorated, with manufacturing activity in particular and industrial production in contraction/recession in several major EU countries. But, the slowdown has stalled in recent months and the ECB seems a bit more relaxed now.

The main comments of the ECB minutes below:

  • There are some indications of a mild increase in core inflation
  • There had been solid upward movement in underlying inflation, excl. holiday prices
  • Data pointing to weak but stabilising growth dynamics
  • Geopolitical tensions not conducive to lowering uncertainty
  • But sentiment has improved over receding global trade tensions
  • Industry slump may bottom out before creating spillover
  • Stimulus impact in latest outlook rather conservative
  • Must better understand reasons for weak inflation
  • Policy could be adjusted to reduce unwanted side effects
  • Must be vigilant on efficacy of policy measures

Manufacturing remains in recession in Europe, but at least it is not falling any deeper, as the reports of the last few months have showed. Besides that, inflation has climbed from below 1% and is stabilizing just above here, which is a red flag level for the ECB.

The Euro remains bullish today, with EUR/USD having climbed around 50 pips. This is not enough to keep it bullish in the long term, but we should keep such comments in mind because they still improve the sentiment for the Euro, which will make trading for EUR/USD sellers a bit harder.

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