UK Q4 GDP Misses Contraction

The UK GDP for Q4 of 2019 fell flat, as a result of an economic improvement in December, following 2 contracting months

Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, February 11, 2020•1 min read

The UK GDP report for the Q4 of 2019 was released earlier this morning. This report was interesting because the UK economy had been weakening considerably in recent months and there were indications that it might have fallen into contraction.

But, it seems that the optimism in December following Boris Johnson’s reelection, helped keep the economy afloat, just about. Below are the details of the Q4 report.

UK Q4 GDP Report

UK Q4 preliminary GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q expected
Prior (Q3) +0.4%
GDP +1.1% vs +0.8% y/y expected
Prior (Q3) +1.1%

Private consumption +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
Prior +0.3%
Exports +4.1% vs +1.8% q/q expected
Prior +7.9%
Imports -0.8% vs -0.1% q/q expected
Prior -0.3%
Total business investment -1.0% q/q
Prior 0.0%

The growth of the last quarter indicates that the UK economy came to a standstill in Q4 last year, but that is in part due to the better December month following the election. Otherwise, economic conditions may have even contracted in the final quarter of last year.

UK December GDP Report

UK December monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
Prior -0.3%
Index of services +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m
Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4%

As seen from the previous numbers of the December report, November was pretty bad, with services and the GDP contracting by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. But, December was pretty good and the economic activity improved considerably, so the UK ended a bad year on the right foot. But, let’s see in the coming weeks if it will continue that in January and into 2020.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.