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UK Q4 GDP Misses Contraction

Posted Tuesday, February 11, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The UK GDP report for the Q4 of 2019 was released earlier this morning. This report was interesting because the UK economy had been weakening considerably in recent months and there were indications that it might have fallen into contraction.

But, it seems that the optimism in December following Boris Johnson’s reelection, helped keep the economy afloat, just about. Below are the details of the Q4 report.

UK Q4 GDP Report

  • UK Q4 preliminary GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q expected
  • Prior (Q3) +0.4%
  • GDP +1.1% vs +0.8% y/y expected
  • Prior (Q3) +1.1%
  • Private consumption +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
  • Prior +0.3%
  • Exports +4.1% vs +1.8% q/q expected
  • Prior +7.9%
  • Imports -0.8% vs -0.1% q/q expected
  • Prior -0.3%
  • Total business investment -1.0% q/q
  • Prior 0.0%

The growth of the last quarter indicates that the UK economy came to a standstill in Q4 last year, but that is in part due to the better December month following the election. Otherwise, economic conditions may have even contracted in the final quarter of last year.

UK December GDP Report
  • UK December monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior -0.3%
  • Index of services +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m
  • Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4%

As seen from the previous numbers of the December report, November was pretty bad, with services and the GDP contracting by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. But, December was pretty good and the economic activity improved considerably, so the UK ended a bad year on the right foot. But, let’s see in the coming weeks if it will continue that in January and into 2020.

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