CPI in Focus

Forex Signals Brief for Feb 13: US CPI Lies Ahead

Posted Thursday, February 13, 2020 by
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read

US Market Wrap

The focus in the US this week was on Fed Boss Jerome Powell and his testimony before Congress and the Senate.

Yesterday, he finished up in the same fashion in which he started by remaining bullish on the US economy. He did suggest that he was ready to act with more rate cuts and even QE, should the need arise.

Otherwise, it was another day, where markets brushed off any worries about coronavirus and the SPX ticked higher, despite the headlines pointing to more and more fatalities.

The NZD/USD was the strongest performer of the session on the back of the upbeat outlook from the RBNZ.


Today’s Agenda

Markets have been forced to tick along on limited data this week and Thursday will be more of the same.

There is one key release that we will all be watching with US CPI set to drop. The interesting thing from my perspective is that based on inflation numbers, the US economy is actually looking perfectly positioned.

CPI is right in that 2-3% band which is what central banks are looking for. At the same time, US jobs are strong so in fairness, the hawks have a pretty strong case at the moment.

And perhaps that’s why we continue to see a rebound in the Greenback. Because despite the negative headlines on a daily basis, many of the key data points are suggesting the outlook is far from terrible.


Forex Signal Update

The FX Leaders Team finished with 2 wins from 4 trades for a 50% strike rate on the session.


AUD/USD – Active Signal

The AUD/USD has been up and down all week, but is rotating around the 0.6700 level. While this is a big support level it also acts as a magnet and we are short looking for another test despite the RBA being bullish.

AUD/USD – 240min.


EUR/CHF – Active Signal

The EUR/CHF has continued to slide, however, we banked two wins in the Euro yesterday as a nice hedge.

EUR/CHF – 240min.


Cryptocurrency Update

Begrudgingly or not, we now must accept that BTC is bullish as we are seeing price hold the $10,000 level.

Looking at how far price can run, I am seeing the next key resistance level around the $10,800 level. So if price pulls back, that might set up a good risk-reward play. At current prices we are probably at a 1:1 risk/reward, which probably isn’t good enough for a long play just yet.

BTC – 240min.
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