RBA Remains Dovish: AUD Slides
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read
The latest minutes from the RBA have painted a relatively dovish picture.
The minutes from the February meeting, suggest that we’ll be seeing an ‘extended period of low rates’ and the board will be prepared to act again if the need arises.
The minutes noted that the board did look at easing but decided to keep rates unchanged.
If we recall, the odds of a Feb cut were sitting around 60% at the end of 2019, but as the new year began the data that we started seeing started to improve.
We saw better than expected jobs numbers and inflation that was starting to tick in the right direction. As a result, the odds of a cut fell to around 20% at the time the board was meeting. And as we know, decided to leave rates on hold.
There are also some suggestions that the coronavirus could have a negative impact on the Aussie economy and that would then force the RBA to cut. But the RBA said it was ‘too early to judge’. So we will wait and see how this develops in the coming weeks and months.
All the news today is really pointing to the fact that the RBA is really waiting for more information across the board. As we know, the big release will be this week’s jobs number, which could make or break for the Aussie.
On the back of today’s bearish sounding minutes, the AUD/USD is already falling away sharply and is back under 0.6700. This is a huge support and we will need a fundamental catalyst to move it further.
A bad jobs number might be that catalyst – but time will tell.